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Not every stock market correction predicts or ends with a recession or a major economic downturn. Sometimes we correct just for the hell of it. This is the emotional component of the market that has more to do with the fear of conditions getting materially worse than actual conditions getting materially worse. My friend Ben…

1. Minor impact on GDP and investment growth Total infrastructure investment for the World Cup could reach BRL26billion (0.5 percent of GDP) between 2009 and 2014, while spending for the Olympic Games should amount to around BRL12billion (0.2 percent of GDP) between 2010-2016. These are small amounts relative to the country’s economy. From 2009-2013, Euler Hermes estimates the…

The wealthiest ten percent of Americans own eighty percent of the stock market and it is this breakdown that’s been the reason why the Fed’s primary transmission mechanism – QE to raise asset prices – hasn’t simulated shit. Because the people who are least likely to spend newfound cash are pretty much the only ones…

Every day, US investors trade hundreds of millions of dollars into and out of ETFs of foreign stocks without even stopping to think about how they actually work. This includes many professionals, by the way – I’ve had some hilarious conversations with financial advisors who have billions in client money at risk in products they…

Everyone’s talking about this morning’s WTI Crude Oil breakout above the 105 level that had served as resistance for quite some time. Crude is up big this morning as the Iraqi news I discussed here yesterday finally caught investors’ attention. My friend Peter Boockvar had this to say about the significance of this week’s activity:…

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A few unexpected events have taken place in the last 48 hours – ripples across the surface of an otherwise eerily still pond… First, all hell began breaking loose in Iraq as the hot new terror group ISIS began taking major cities in the north – cities that were once held up as a model…

The day we started our new firm last September, we had one outside visitor come by and say hello. It was Michael Kitces. Nobody knows this industry better in the entire country than Michael, he’s spoken at every important conference and event in the business over the last few years, he knows all the models,…