March 2014

re: ‘Winter of Our Discontent’ references

We’re coming through one of the worst winters – weather-wise – in decades. The economic data is all being skewed by this and S&P 500 company CEOs were more than twice as likely to mention the word “weather” during this earnings season than they were a year ago.  As a result of this dynamic, market…

Earned vs Inherited Wealth

Paul Krugman’s latest tackles the issue of policies that favor inherited wealth more than earned income. He argues that Republicans have become more supportive of old, established money than entrepreneurship in recent years. Consider, as Exhibit A, the Bush tax cuts. Bush did cut the top tax rate on earned income from 39.6 to 35…

The Big Bank Breakout

Financials represent our largest sector weighting on the equity side of the portfolios we manage for clients and they have since early January. I’ve said recently that the biggest, most glaring inefficiency in the entire market right now – at least to my own eye – is the fact that bank stocks are the very…

This Week on TRB

photo: Hindu priests throws colored powder at devotees during Holi celebrations at Bankey Bihari temple in Vrindavan, Uttar Pradesh, India, on March 13, 2014. (Reuters/Ahmad Masood) via National Geographic Here were the most read posts on TRB this week, in case you missed them: Is Success Inherited or Learned? Tops, Bottoms & Middles Chart o’ the Day:…

“New All Time Highs”

This morning the S&P 500 opened above its all-time high of 1878. Looking at the charts, the uninformed investor would surmise that it’s been an easy road for investors. It has not. People have trouble with new all-time highs. We’re programmed to assume that things are about to go the other way. We do dumb…

Tops, Bottoms & Middles

Tops are a process, Bottoms are an event and Middles are a motherfucker. Because when you’re not at a top or at a bottom, but somewhere in the middle, you spend the bulk of your time worrying about which one of those two you’re closer to. Market-timers don’t live long, it’s a horrible existence.  My…