March 2014

Nonsense Forecasts

I was on TV the other day next to a guy who goes, totally matter-of-factly: “We should get 8 percent earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2014 and earnings drive stock market returns so I expect to see an 8ish percent return for the market this year.” My jaw dropped. I don’t even want…

Peter Boockvar: Russia is no small matter for markets

My friend Peter Boockvar put a note out on the Russia situation this morning, I’ve excerpted what I believe to be the key portion for investors… Russia joined the WTO in August 2012, is a major exporter of energy to the European region and the Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and wheat. All…

8 Things I Learned from Warren Buffett this Weekend

The 2013 Berkshire Hathaway annual letter to shareholders came out over the weekend and, as usual, it’s loaded with interesting insights from the chairman, Mr. Warren Buffett. I have every Berkshire letter he’s written going back to 1965 (before he was even signing them for himself) collected in one PDF and it’s fun to watch…

Periodic Table of Investment Returns 1994-2013

I love looking at these each year. They serve as a healthy reminder that: a) asset classes rally in multi-year streaks… b) …except when they don’t c) any asset class can “win” any given year, and any can “lose” – even last year’s big winners d) diversification is superior to trend-following for most investors e)…

QE’s Greatest Beneficiaries

Quantitative easing “worked” for all of us, but it worked much better for some than for others. Its greatest beneficiaries have been, perversely, those who’ve needed its help the very least. Let’s say, for example, your business model involves borrowing as much money as possible as cheaply as possible to put to work. If this…

This Week on TRB

Here were the most read posts on TRB this week, in case you missed them: Here Comes the Climax ‘Young Money’ – My Review Everything is Awesome!  People who cannot accurately forecast markets After the Jump