January 2014

Definitive Data on the “January Barometer”

Thanks to BofA Merrill Lynch’s chief technician Stephen Suttmeier for this bit on the January Barometer, one of only a handful of truly useful calendrical indicators… January Barometer: As January goes, so goes the year Does the January Barometer work? Based on S&P 500 data going back to 1928, January is a good predictor of…

Chart o’ the Day: Passive Indexing by Category

Acording to Morningstar, index funds’ market share (both mutuals and ETFs) has doubled in the last decade from 12% to 27%. Investors have been abandoning actively managed funds for years now – bu not across all categories equally. The article notes that some categories of active equity funds seem to be more susceptible to being…

Bob Peck: Five Reasons to Like Facebook

My fave social media analyst, SunTrust’s Bob Peck, is out with a bullish report on Facebook shares this morning, with higher revenue and cash flow estimates along with an upped price target ($65 from $55). He sees five drivers of the stock from here: Five Factors Driving Increased Optimism. Our more bullish outlook is driven…

The only thing we have to fear…

is interest rates that rise too quickly. …and Bird Flu. But on the rates thing – it is pretty important for us all to get up to snuff on how asset classes act during rate-rise cycles at this point.  I covered this a bit in my 2014 outlook piece this morning, but let’s also look…

You Are Here

A new year has just begun, let’s get our bearings… This isn’t a post full of table-pounding predictions or forecasts, this is just me thinking out loud. In the first part, I’ll sum up the current environment as I see it. In the second part, I’ll talk about some possible scenarios for the coming year…