Joshua M Brown

Big Oil vs You: Who means more to the economy?

What’s better for the economy, weak oil prices or strong ones? What’s more beneficial for US economic growth, strong profits and capex spending by Big Oil or less pain at the pump for consumers? Economists have been batting this issue back and forth as oil has slid lower for the last three weeks. The global…

Chart o’ the Day: A look at the 12-month moving average

Jon Krinsky’s technical note for MKM Partners this week is entitled “The Game Has Changed… V-Shaped Bottom Unlikely” and, while not bearish, he is very skeptical that last week’s low will be the low for the current correction. He notes that breadth was terrible despite Friday’s bounce and that we’ve now spent a week below…

Robert Shiller: Stock Market Ebola

That killer quote from Professor Robert Shiller’s latest column at the New York Times. Shiller’s book, Irrational Exuberance, has been one of the most influential things I’ve ever read about how human psychology impacts markets and the economy. I prefer the second edition, as it covers the financial crisis and the aftermath of the dot…

This Week on TRB

Cartoon by Gary Varvel, Indianapolis Star These were the most read posts on TRB this week, in case you missed them:

Here come the “Best Six Months”

The best six months of the year for stocks begin at the start of November and wind down in April, when all the “Sell In May” sh*t starts again. The statistics are plain to see, it just doesn’t work every single year (what does?). Anyway, Stephen Suttmeier’s latest technical note for Bank of America Merrill…

Fun With Expected Returns!

Research Affiliates has a bright and shiny new tool online for investors to play to with their expected returns forecast data, which is largely based on the historic ranges of long-term earnings multiples. You can plot out RA’s forecast for every investable country stock market around the world. You can also toggle back and forth between…

The Challenge

I wrote this on August 25th as the S&P 500 was racing to new heights and all appeared to be well on the surface. It seems really apropos given the recent upheaval happening across global stock and bond markets. I repost it below, and I hope you get something out of it. – Josh *** The…