The Next Crash is Coming – Person with Web Access

It’s a bit early but I already have my quote of the day. It comes from MarketWatch columnist Paul Farrell, whom I now regard as a genius. We’ve already predicted a 100% risk of a 50% crash in 2016, if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency. But if Mitch McConnell is re-elected and the GOP wins…

Snap Judgments of Tech Product Launches

Here’s the stock market’s reaction to Apple’s massive roll-out of all new products and platforms today (via MoneyBeat): Shares surged as much as 4.8% to $103.08, pushed close to a fresh record high, and at one point, was on track for one of its best days of the year. The rally contrasted with Apple’s previous product…

Sector Performance During Rate Tightening Cycles

Savita Subramanian’s US Equity and Quant Strategy team at Merrill did some work on relative sector performance during interest rate tightening cycles recently. In the below table, she gives us a sense of which areas of the stock market tended to fare best and worst in the months leading up to and during the rate…

Failure is Not Predictive

Among the many treasures within the Market Wizards series of books by Jack Schwager (and they are legion) are the stories about failures. One of the most common threads running throughout his fifty some-odd interviews and four books is that everyone f***s up early in their careers. Really badly. The mistakes of these traders and…