Let’s say that you’re a market commentator or financial blogger…
If earlier this year you predicted that unemployment would climb higher than 10% and that the market would be crushed, would you now be considered half-right or half-wrong by your followers? Will you be rewarded for nailing the unemployment number or hated for keeping readers out of the biggest market rebound of all time?
We’re starting to see the beginnings of the backlash against many financial bloggers, especially those of the gloom/ conspiratorial kind. Most of the hate is actually coming from other bloggers.
For all of 2008 and the beginning of 2009, we were being force fed troughs full of lies and obfuscation about what our true financial picture was and what was being done behind the scenes. It was in this environment that many in the investor class turned to more, shall we say, alternative voices for a different take on the parade of financial meltdowns.
Bloggers were no longer relaying the news, they were digging for the truth in the data and making the news.
Now, 7 months or so removed from the bottom for most financial assets, many are tired of the conspiracies, even if they contain some truth and even if they do constitute an incredibly unlevel playing field. The attitude is starting to shift more toward the traditional “Hey, I know these guys are stealing and screwing me and are pulling all the strings, but what the hell? I can make money in the market now, too, and what can I do about it anyway, might as well join the party.”
The Fly said recently that he hates these gloom bloggers, and if CNBC also hates financial bloggers, than by the transitive property, he must love CNBC. He said it 20 times cooler than I could paraphrase, but I can totally relate to that notion
Sean O’Brien (Ex-Wirehouse), now writing at The Davian Letter, recently laid it out for the “tin foil hat and black helicopter crowd“:
It is with curious amusement that I have watched the explosion of the Govt/Fed/Vampire Squid conspiracy theory genre within the bloggeratti and the mainstream media. They all act as if they have just discovered something so secret and nefarious. They( and I am sure you know whom I am talking about…..) delight in “uncovering” anomalies in the tape or after hours activity in the SPY. They must spend hours putting together deep research pieces on dark doings in the MBS market. I have news for them…..IT IS NO SECRET.
There will be a lot more of this for as long as the market remains buoyant and buyable on dips. The further it feels we’ve gotten away from the Doomsday Scenario, the more scorn and invective will be headed toward the blogger prophets of doom – even those prophets who were dead right on everything they predicted but dead wrong as far as what these predictions would mean to the market.
Some of the brightest and most erudite guys I read have been exactly right on the details but wrong (so far) on what all the details would mean big picture-wise. Personally, I respect any opinion, regardless of the outcome, as long as it was formulated based on facts and sound reasoning. No one gets them all right, after all.
It appears, however, that many in the blogosphere are now going to focus on the result of those opinions…mercilessly.
Begun the backlash has.