Dubai World & Bear Stearns: Coal Mine Canaries?

Posted by

Click Image to Embiggen!

http://thereformedbroker.com

The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.

While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).

Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates.  At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.

Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai.  Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.

We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.

Full Disclosure:  Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Tags: , , , , , ,

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. g food words commented on Jun 03

    g food words

    […]please go to the web sites we stick to, such as this one particular, as it represents our picks in the web[…]

  2. d'home renovation commented on Jun 04

    d’home renovation

    […]here are some links to web sites that we link to since we believe they are really worth visiting[…]

  3. Venture Point Network commented on Jun 04

    Venture Point Network

    […]just beneath, are several entirely not associated sites to ours, on the other hand, they’re certainly worth going over[…]

  4. vibe commented on Jun 04

    vibe

    […]Every the moment inside a although we select blogs that we read. Listed below are the latest web sites that we pick out […]

  5. bangal ka jadu commented on Jun 05

    bangal ka jadu

    […]always a major fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but do not get lots of link love from[…]

  6. cyberskin dildo commented on Jun 06

    cyberskin dildo

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine several unrelated data, nonetheless seriously really worth taking a look, whoa did 1 study about Mid East has got additional problerms at the same time […]

  7. Taoist Real Sex Talk commented on Jun 07

    Taoist Real Sex Talk

    […]although internet sites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they are actually worth a go by, so possess a look[…]

  8. luxury vibrator commented on Jun 07

    luxury vibrator

    […]very couple of websites that take place to be detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly really worth checking out[…]

  9. military in iraq blog commented on Jun 07

    military in iraq blog

    […]usually posts some pretty fascinating stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[…]

  11. how often do married couples have sex commented on Jun 08

    how often do married couples have sex

    […]usually posts some extremely intriguing stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[…]

  12. suction dildo commented on Jun 08

    suction dildo

    […]very couple of internet sites that happen to be comprehensive below, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well worth checking out[…]

  14. air freshener commented on Jun 08

    air freshener

    […]that will be the end of this report. Right here you’ll come across some web sites that we assume you’ll appreciate, just click the links over[…]

  15. brush cutter,head line commented on Jun 08

    brush cutter,head line

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated information, nevertheless really really worth taking a look, whoa did one particular find out about Mid East has got extra problerms also […]

HowIInvestMyMoney