The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.
While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).
Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates. At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.
Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai. Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.
We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.
Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.
I’m a New York City-based financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. I help people invest and manage portfolios for them. For disclosure information please see here.
Subscribe & Reform
Get a Full Investor Curriculum: Join The Book List
Every month you'll receive 3-4 book suggestions--chosen by hand from more than 1,000 books. You'll also receive an extensive curriculum (books, articles, papers, videos) in PDF form right away.
industry 808
[…]The info mentioned inside the article are a number of the most beneficial readily available […]
sesame street p shopping
[…]The information and facts mentioned inside the article are several of the most effective accessible […]
beauty and health tips in telugu
[…]Here are several of the sites we suggest for our visitors[…]
business finance 12th edition ebook
[…]very few web-sites that occur to be comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly properly worth checking out[…]
small business 30000
[…]the time to read or take a look at the subject material or internet sites we’ve linked to below the[…]
e education portal
[…]check below, are some absolutely unrelated sites to ours, nevertheless, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
gainesville health and fitness zumba
[…]very couple of internet sites that come about to become detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly well worth checking out[…]
5 health related fitness components
[…]Sites of interest we’ve a link to[…]
news 7 san diego
[…]Every once in a while we opt for blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the newest websites that we select […]
home accessories manufacturers
[…]that would be the end of this write-up. Here youll discover some internet sites that we think you will value, just click the links over[…]
e health jobs
[…]usually posts some extremely intriguing stuff like this. If youre new to this site[…]
traveling agent
[…]one of our visitors not too long ago advised the following website[…]
3 real estate commission
[…]usually posts some really intriguing stuff like this. If youre new to this site[…]
home decor kelowna
[…]one of our visitors not too long ago encouraged the following website[…]
seo agency
[…]here are some links to web pages that we link to mainly because we think they’re really worth visiting[…]