Now listen up and listen good. Last May 4th, Fed Chairman Jay Powell told a press conference that “A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering.” Five weeks later, the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points. Then he did another 75 basis points, then another 75 basis points, then another 75 basis points. Four in a row.
So today, when Powell goes out of his way to tell you how high rates are going to go and for how long they’ll stay there, remember that he doesn’t even know what they’re going to be doing next month, let alone by the end of the year. The Fed’s forecasts are as worthless as anyone else’s. That’s why they say they are “data dependent.” Invest like an adult, not a child who believes in clairvoyance.