“There’s far too much variance during actual events because humans are often unpredictable.”

Before you read anything else today, check out Ben’s new one at A Wealth Of Common Sense about the limitations of polls and surveys.

And I would say these limitations are even more applicative to the investment markets than they are to gauging political outcomes – because investors, unlike voters, have to contend with the fact that each day’s market activity may actually affect their decision-making process. There is no real analog to the stock market in politics because regular people do not have their retirement savings wrapped up at Paddy Power.

Everybody Lies: Pollster Edition (A Wealth Of Common Sense)