GDP, Volatility, Amazon

US 3rd quarter GDP came out just in time to rig the election for Hillary Clinton. I’m hearing the economists who prepare the report were found dead in a van, killed by Mexicans obviously. People are saying this. Many people. The best people…

Anyway, this highly flawed measure of the economy, which will be revised many times, says we’re doing better than we thought: 2.9% growth versus the expected 2.6% growth. This growth rate is the fastest in two years. Lots of people were talking recession this spring. Again. Maybe next year.

In the meantime, gold is being slammed back down as the next rate hike now seems more likely to traders. In case you’ve lost track, gold got off to a good start this year from an extremely depressed price, then peaked out in the summer. Now it’s back below where it was trading in January 2015.

Also, Mike did this thing were he looked at actual daily price swings for the stock market this year. Lots of people are walking around saying, “It’s an election year, volatility is higher and it should be.”

Actually, no. Volatility is low this year relative to all years, number one, and number two, there is no evidence that says markets are more volatile during election years. It’s yet another thing people like to say because it sounds like it should be right. We should make a list of those.

Lastly, Amazon reported a quarterly profit last night that wasn’t a new record quarterly profit and everyone is writing the company’s obituary. The stock is down 4% in early trading this morning. It’s gone up 100% since February, literally, from the 400’s to the 800’s. But what have you done for me today? 

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