Chart o’ the Day: Maybe STFU for a little while?

Here’s the latest – Faber says the S&P 500 is set to crash 50%. Okay, it’s happened a handful of times before over the last century, I suppose it’s possible. Is it probable?

I wrote a book about the history of market calls and outrageous stock market punditry. In the course of my research (which encompassed 300 years of market history back to the South Seas Bubble), I came away with a few important takeaways:

– No one who called any of the big ones was able to also call the recoveries, or even the next crash

– Lots of people have historically gotten credit for major crash calls, because all of their previous and subsequent calls were forgotten about

– It’s pretty easy to get on a soapbox and say that horrible things “could” happen

– The uber-bulls are just as bad – notably outlandish upside targets for the Dow Jones have all occurred at major tops

– It’s harder to admit that the future is unknowable – and it’s much less marketable

– It is irrational to be constantly worried about low-probability events – and a long-term money loser of a strategy

– The best investors in history focused their time and energy away from attention-grabbing predictions

With that preamble in mind, I direct you to today’s chart, which comes to us from my friend Jon Boorman. You may click on it to embiggen the image:


Maybe, instead of making repeated pronouncements based on nonsense, it would be better to just STFU for a little while. Professionals laugh at this stuff but mom & pop investors normally don’t have as much context and are more susceptible to crash calls and being scared out of their portfolios.

And now, my prediction: Average annual returns somewhere between 5 and 10% for the S&P 500 over the next 30 years, punctuated by drastic sell-offs and brutal bear markets here and there, which serve to reward the best investors and punish the emotional ones. After all, the stock market must go down from time to time. Otherwise, there would be no premium return available for those who choose to persevere.

My book, Clash of the Financial Pundits, available here if you haven’t read it yet.


This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. td online commented on Dec 05

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]

  2. rbc login commented on Dec 20

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 94246 additional Information to that Topic: […]

  3. DevSecOps commented on Dec 21

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More here to that Topic: […]

  4. 안전토토사이트 commented on Dec 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  5. estate lawyer commented on Jan 08

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: […]

  6. wig commented on Jan 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  7. daftar togel online commented on Jan 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  8. replique montre commented on Jan 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: […]

  9. Digital Transformation solutions commented on Feb 05

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 49414 additional Info on that Topic: […]