My friend Peter Boockvar had this to say about rate hike odds early this morning…
On the heels of the strong 10 yr note auction and the new on the run note, the 2s/10s spread is narrowing to just below 116 bps, the lowest since January ’08. The April fed funds futures contract covering the March meeting has the odds of a rate hike down to 30%. Another rate hike is not fully priced in until October and good luck with that if the first 8 trading days of 2016 are a dress rehearsal of what’s to come. Economic growth was slowing anyway and in the central bank created world of an asset dependent economy, the reverse wealth effect is just upon us. As I’ve said before to the Fed, live by the sword and die by it.
Managing Director, Chief Market Analyst
The Lindsey Group LLC
And by the way, Peter’s just begun tweeting today. it only took the worst start to the year for stocks since ever to get him out of his cave 🙂