One of my favorite things about watching football is trying to identify which defensive lineman is so hyped up before the hike that they’ll be the one to jump offsides first. I’ve gotten good at it, actually.
One of the defining traits of a prolonged stock market downtrend (or, dare we say it, bear market) is the opening gap higher than fails and breaks everyone’s heart. It is the mirror image (perfect negative) of the activity you see during sustained bull markets, where lower opens slowly grind higher as the day wears on and allocations are made to ETFs and mutual funds.
We’ve had quite a few of these opening gaps higher over the last several months and the market does nothing but flatline or fall. Investors get encouraged by this or that action in the foreign markets or in the headlines and they bid ’em up early, mostly using the e-mini S&P contract in modern times. Profits are scalped and by lunch time the indices are bleeding again.
But the cycle continues to play out over and over again. I’ve yet to have heard the market efficiency explanation for this phenomenon, by the way…
But I digress. Take my poll about “false starts” and let’s see what we end up with:
How many more gap-up opens do you plan to be fooled by this year?