Hit the Showers

Kuroda dropped his kimono. And stepped into the steaming shower. To wash away the anger, the humiliation, and the last remaining trace of economic orthodoxy. He’d cut a secret deal with Abe, sealed it with a Samurai swear. Kuroda held up his end, expanding QE to infinity. But Abe betrayed Bushido; dissolving parliament, delaying the consumption tax hike. April’s 3% increase sparked a 7.3% collapse in Q2 GDP. And despite every nerd on the planet forecasting a robust +2.2% rebound, Q3 GDP sank -1.6%. So in one swing of the sword, Japan’s $4.7trln GDP was cut 3.8% ($181bln) from consensus. Stunned by the slash, Abe cranked up the heat. But you see, by ending austerity, while expanding QE, Japan can no longer play Kabuki – so Kuroda’s now the world’s first major central banker to overtly monetize debt.

Draghi stood in the shower. Shivering. The water had gone from cool to cold, as quickly as the Euro rose against the Yen. Because in a sluggish globalized economy that’s afraid to reform, one man’s steamy shower is another man’s perky nipple. Naturally, Mario cranked the hot – after all, he’s Italian - enraging the German’s, whose faucets all got governors. But no matter. When you’re in a cold shower, and incremental turns of the knob haven’t done the trick, well, everyone eventually overdoes it. In one hot rush. So as Draghi-san cranked the heat, Euro Stoxx jumped 2.8% while the Euro fell 1.1% versus the dollar, retesting 2yr lows. The Nikkei fell 0.8% while the Yen declined 1.3%, to new 7yr lows. America shouldered its collective burden; the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, to historic highs. And Janet closed her eyes, facing our nation’s warm cascade. Steeling herself, for the cold to come. While praying our Bakken Boys, and their cheap energy, will keep firing our furnace.

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