Chart o’ the Day: Here Comes the Seasonal Tailwind

The other day I covered this subject but I think it’s worth reprising – the best six months are now upon us and, unlike many other seasonals / cyclicals that are an exercise in intensive data-mining, this is a study that has an extraordinary amount of validity in my opinion.

Ari Wald, ace technical analyst at Oppenheimer, posts a simple table illustrating the annualized returns of investing ahead of the best six months versus the lesser of the two periods going back decades…

Seasonal trends are a tailwind for S&P 500 performance.
In fact, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged an annualized gain of 13.9% between November and April vs. a 1.7% annualized gain between May and October. In addition, the index has been higher between November and April 78.5% of the time vs. 62.5% of the time between May and October.

The best November-April performance occurred in 1971 (+24.9%), and the worst occurred in 1974 (-16.6%).

Screen Shot 2014-11-10 at 9.13.12 AM

 

Source:

Technical Analysis: Inflection Points
Oppenheimer Asset Management – November 10th 2014

Read Also:

Here Come the Best Six Months (TRB)

Follow Ari Wald on Twitter here! 

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. scotiabank online banking sign in commented on Jan 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  2. Quality Engineering commented on Jan 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  3. wigs commented on Jan 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 61204 additional Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]