Chart o’ the Day: Here Comes the Seasonal Tailwind

The other day I covered this subject but I think it’s worth reprising – the best six months are now upon us and, unlike many other seasonals / cyclicals that are an exercise in intensive data-mining, this is a study that has an extraordinary amount of validity in my opinion.

Ari Wald, ace technical analyst at Oppenheimer, posts a simple table illustrating the annualized returns of investing ahead of the best six months versus the lesser of the two periods going back decades…

Seasonal trends are a tailwind for S&P 500 performance.
In fact, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged an annualized gain of 13.9% between November and April vs. a 1.7% annualized gain between May and October. In addition, the index has been higher between November and April 78.5% of the time vs. 62.5% of the time between May and October.

The best November-April performance occurred in 1971 (+24.9%), and the worst occurred in 1974 (-16.6%).

Screen Shot 2014-11-10 at 9.13.12 AM

 

Source:

Technical Analysis: Inflection Points
Oppenheimer Asset Management – November 10th 2014

Read Also:

Here Come the Best Six Months (TRB)

Follow Ari Wald on Twitter here! 

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. gary commented on Jan 26

    .

    ñïàñèáî çà èíôó!!

  2. Wayne commented on Jan 26

    .

    ñïñ!

  3. Tommy commented on Feb 13

    .

    ñïñ çà èíôó.

  4. most realistic wigs commented on Sep 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  5. EV EatVerts commented on Sep 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  6. Vape Juice commented on Sep 25

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  7. bitcoin loophole review commented on Sep 29

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  8. bitcoin evolution commented on Oct 01

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  9. Bitcoin Era Review 2020 commented on Oct 01

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  10. 토토사이트 commented on Oct 16

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  11. fun88 commented on Oct 28

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]

  12. Intelligent Automation commented on Nov 27

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/11/10/chart-o-the-day-here-comes-the-seasonal-tailwind/ […]