As regular readers know, I don’t personally have a political affiliation (I read too much to be a right winger and I work too hard to be a liberal, I despise all of them equally), so this won’t be a political post. I also don’t think the outcome of this election will be terribly important to anyone’s investments anyway.
Jon Stewart is saying the true winner of this election season is money. We broke records across campaigns with huge spending tabs and they say 30% of the money that was used this time around has an unaccounted for source!
I do think the most fascinating thing to come out of last night was the confirmation of how much anger there was. This is very atypical of an economic recovery period, which only bolsters the thesis that most people are seeing enough improvement to believe we have a 2-3% GDP track and sub-6 percent unemployment. Obama basically spent this campaign in hiding, by request of his party’s candidates, and was even referred to several times by fellow Dems as a lame duck – which must have been news to the White House because there’s still fully half a term left!
For me, the takeaway is that, absent wage growth, no president or leading party will be able to point to the stock market and get enough credit for it. And in the absence of credit, there will be enough fury and disillusionment for the other side to whip up and turn out the vote. If the actual economy had looked anything like the Dow Jones says it should, no amount of social issue bullshit could have defeated the Dems and taken both houses. And Obamacare would be an afterthought in a 4%-plus growth environment.