The S&P 500 spent almost two full years, between the fall of 2012 and this past September, above its 200-day moving average. For 475 consecutive trading days, stocks remained in a pristine, untouched uptrend – the longest such event in stock market history.
And now it’s over.
The type of behavior you were rewarded for in the period may not be quite as rewarding going forward. It was a once in a lifetime tape and, understandably, people have a hard time accepting that. They still want to believe it’s 2013 – that incredible confluence of improving earnings, ameliorating sentiment and endless stimulus – but it’s not. I said this on the blog the other day and people got angry (see: Why Did The Stock Market Plummet Today?). I said this on the air yesterday and the response was incredulity (see the clip: The Halftime Report).
I get it. Old habits die hard and, well, goddamn that was fun. Every two percent dip was a a gift and every four percent pullback was a screaming buy. Good news was good and bad news was even better. Defensive utilities and growthy tech stocks could lead a rally together one day and then tag in the seemingly opposed energy and consumer discretionary stocks to co-sponsor a rally the next day. It was nirvana, heaven on earth. All you had to do was show up and shut up, your portfolio would grind out a gain every week.
By this summer, it became apparent to anyone looking at internals or international stocks that this period was drawing to a close and the game was changing. The divergences had piled up and the new highs list had been gnawed down to a nub. The S&P 500’s best 50 stocks drove the price indices higher, even while, one by one, every other stock succumbed. We spent the last few weeks on borrowed time but no one wanted to admit it. Even as rallies rolled over and breakouts became fakeouts in the hottest individual names (GoPro! Tesla! Mobileye!), there was a hesitation to acknowledge it. A difficulty saying goodbye.
And who can blame us? Why would you want to believe you couldn’t have Christmas and the Fourth of July every day, forever? It was a tantalizing prospect and it began to feel possible – even plausible!
But now it’s over.
There she goes, my beautiful world.
It’s a new phase, like it or not. Don’t get me wrong – we’ll still get glimmers of her. Those 90-percent up-days where stocks go ballistic and scream into the close. Those 3:30pm ramps after a tough day slugging it out with the sellers. Those algo-driven bursts that confuse us into thinking everyone else is getting back on the horse and we’d better catch up. It’ll happen.
But it will not be the same as it was. The Relentless Bid era has come to a close. This is the next era, it’s already begun.
No one can see these things coming far in advance. But some of us are willing to call them what they are.
Tell ’em, Nick:
دوربین دنده عقب
Hiya! Fast query which is fully off matter. Do you know how to make your website cellular welcoming? My internet site seems unusual when viewing from my apple apple iphone. I’m attempting to uncover a theme or plugin that may be ready to right this pro…
Footwear for deployed military soldiers
[…]Here is a superb Weblog You might Find Fascinating that we Encourage You[…]
دوربین مدار بسته آنالوگ
I’m actually loving the theme/style of your world wide web site. Do you at any time operate into any web browser compatibility issues? A modest variety of my website viewers have complained about my weblog not doing work properly in Explorer but seems…
buttplug
[…]the time to read or take a look at the content material or websites we have linked to below the[…]
vibrator
[…]we came across a cool site that you may possibly appreciate. Take a search in case you want[…]
mini bullet vibrator
[…]here are some hyperlinks to web-sites that we link to due to the fact we feel they’re really worth visiting[…]
configuraciones
[…]check beneath, are some totally unrelated web-sites to ours, nevertheless, they’re most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
هایکویژن
Wonderful site! Is your topic custom made produced or did you download it from someplace? A layout like yours with a number of basic adjustements would genuinely make my weblog stand out. Make sure you enable me know the place you got your design. Bles…
بازاریابی محتوا
Does your web site have a get in touch with page? I’m obtaining a tough time finding it but, I’d like to shoot you an e-mail. I have received some creative tips for your weblog you may be interested in listening to. Both way, great site and I search fo…
شبکه اجتماعی
Hi would you head stating which website system you’re operating with? I’m arranging to begin my own weblog soon but I’m getting a difficult time selecting in between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I inquire is due to the fact y…
kona coffee beans
100% Kona Coffee Beans fancy roasted by LION have been enjoyed by coffee aficionados for well over 100 years.
ترمیم مو و کاشت مو
you are really a excellent webmaster. The web site loading speed is outstanding. It kind of feels that you’re carrying out any distinctive trick. In addition, The contents are masterwork. you have completed a exceptional activity in this matter!
event dome tent
[…]we prefer to honor numerous other web web-sites on the net, even though they arent linked to us, by linking to them. Underneath are some webpages really worth checking out[…]
eDiscovery Compliance Solution
[…]here are some links to websites that we link to simply because we feel they may be worth visiting[…]
دوربین مدار بسته مخفی
I’m genuinely taking pleasure in the design and style and format of your blog. It is a very effortless on the eyes which tends to make it considerably much more pleasant for me to come listed here and go to much more typically. Did you employ out a dev…