February 2014

Why Biotech is not a Bubble

I actually think it is a bubble – but a bubble that does not need to “burst” so to speak; one that can mature and begin to justify itself over the coming decade. With aging populations accelerating across Europe, Japan, China and the US all at once – combined with the burgeoning middle class customer…

The Fed’s Wild and Woolly Year

We now have the full transcripts of the Fed’s meetings from the year 2008 – the wildest era the institution has ever had to navigate through in modern times. As the world broke apart and began to melt down, there were some astonishing conversations being held by the nation’s monetary officials and economists are now…

Crucial Primer on China’s Shadow Banking Explosion

Ask ten random financial professionals what they’re most worried about for 2014 and more than half of them will say China, at least according to Merrill’s recent poll of global PMs managing a collective half a trillion dollars in wealth. Specifically, what they’re concerned with is a hard landing for the economy (meaning GDP growth…

This Week on TRB

Here were the most read posts on TRB this week, in case you missed them: Truer Words Were Never Spoken What We’re Up Against Annuity Boiler Rooms?  Chart o’ the Day: Nasdaq Composite since 1986 The Best and Worst Thing About Investing  

Rally Resumption

Scott Minerd, Global CIO of Guggenheim Investments, says we should be looking past the recent weather-related disappointments in the econ data: The good news is that this is likely only transient noise, and that rising temperatures in March and April should revive everything from auto sales to factory activity, helping the U.S. economy return to…

Truer Words Were Never Spoken

An unintentional piece of poetry closes out Professor Aswath Damodaran’s analysis of the Facebook – Whatsapp deal: My experience with markets has been that no one has a monopoly on virtue and good sense and that the hubris that leads to absolute conviction is an invitation for a market take-down. To investors to view deals like…

Moment of Truth

First, press play and turn up your speakers: Okay, thanks. This morning I showed you the Nasdaq going back to 1986. Let’s look at a simple S&P SPDR chart, no moving averages or RSI or fibonacci bullsh*t, just price:   Is this it? Do we punch through? Are we ready? Do we deserve it? Does…