Let me save you some time, re: ‘Our Second Half Outlook”

I’ve heard enough. I can help you. I’ve now attended or listened to more than a dozen “second half outlook” presentations from both the sell-side and several asset management shops.

Nobody ever knows what’s going to happen, but its pretty awesome how everyone’s guesses coalesce into a giant miasma of shared expectations. The conventional wisdom about what will happen between now and year-end, along with speculations about how the markets will digest it,  is essentially the extrapolation forward of whatever is already happening.

Here’s the current Wall Street consensus – and it is a rock-solid consensus – in a nutshell:

*  Overweight US stocks and / or US-focused stocks (companies with high domestic revenues, profits). Tailwinds: Shale Gas Revolution, continuing strength in housing, rebounding consumer sentiment.

*  Underweight international equities / EM equities. Headwinds: stronger dollar, China slowing growth.

*  Underweight international bonds, REITs, EM debt. Headwinds: less accommodation from US central bank, rates on lower-risk yield plays (like Treasurys) rising.

*  Sectors: Overweight Tech, Financials Industrials. Underweight Utilities, Consumer Staples, Basic Materials.

*  High oil prices are transitory, “geopolitically driven”, “the wild card”, a possible “headwind for the consumer”.

*  September Taper expected, $15 billion taken off current $85 billion monthly asset purchases. Fed reiterates no change in interest rates anytime soon, as a “peace offering” to keep the bond market calm. Stocks falter at first, then rally into year end.

*  Larry Summers would be bad for the bond market. Janet Yellen would would be bullish for stock prices.

There you go, just saved you hours and hours and hours of time.

Go read a book under a tree.

 

 

 

 

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. heathrow to cheltenham taxi commented on Sep 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  2. jldplumbing.com commented on Oct 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 11758 additional Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  3. td bank login commented on Nov 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  4. ORM agency commented on Nov 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  5. rbc online banking sign in banking commented on Nov 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  6. Automated regression testing commented on Nov 28

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  7. functional testing commented on Dec 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  8. hãy nhìn vào các trang web ở đây commented on Dec 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 62601 more Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  9. 사설토토 commented on Dec 24

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]

  10. employee file retention commented on Jan 21

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/29/let-me-save-you-some-time-re-our-second-half-outlook/ […]