Today I jokingly tweeted “Sell in April, Drink some DayQuil” but I thought it might be interesting to mention the actual historical data.
My friend Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac notes that April is typically a strong month for stocks but it does end the “best six month” run that begins each year in November…
This April 1st is a busy day full of seasonal influences. As the first trading day of April and the second quarter, it has enjoyed exceptional strength over the past 18 years, advancing 15 times with an average gain of 0.6% in all 18 years for S&P 50. Declines occurred in 2001, 2002 and 2005. However, in 2013, April 1st is also the day after Easter which has been the S&P 500’s worst post-holiday trading session. From 1984 to 2003, S&P 500 declined 16 times. In the nine years since, S&P has been up six times. Bullish April 1st influences will likely trump any post-Easter historical weakness this year.
Nothing works all the time, but this one has some meat to it – April is rarely a great time for brand new long positions.