There’s a lot of concern out there about the next recession – and yes, I promise it’s coming.
The next recession is always coming, regardless of how badly the Federal Reserve wants to nullify the business cycle and pretend it doesn’t exist. The question is not if but when. Some bearish strategists say we’re already in it in all but name. Some bullish strategists would say that we’re on the cusp of the return of real economic growth, any day now, and that ISM numbers or car sales or home starts are somehow presaging this.
And then there are the realists (a group to which I hope I belong) who would say that we are not in a recession yet but we might as well be.
Based on the most important measures (employment, confidence, wage growth) it feels like a recession for the most part anyway and people are behaving as though we’re in one. You’ll forgive the barely employed father of three in the rust belt for not clicking his heels about this month’s fucking beige book readings. We’re at a rate of economic growth just above stall speed and the risk of tipping into a recession is ever-present at all times so long as we remain in this state.
Further, we’ve never been able to truly decouple from a synchronized slowdown with Europe – short-term decouplings always lead to an eventual recoupling, thanks to the incontrovertible truth of our export dependence. And because we know that Europe is now in a continent-wide recession, possibily headed toward a depression, it’s not a stretch to say that we’ll be joining them soon enough.
The reason why this matters is that the typical recession involves a 25 to 30% pullback for the stock market.
But as for the timing of the next recession, don’t ask me. I can only provide you with the historical lengths of prior economic recovery periods, I’ll let you conclude what this recovery period will ultimately finish up at. Some key things you need to know:
1. The first thing you have to be aware of is that this recovery officially dates back to the end of the last recession, pegged at July 2009 by NBER (the body that officially calculates this things).
2. That makes this particular recovery, pathetic though it may be, 38 months old already.
3. There have been ten other economic recoveries following recessions since World War II prior to this one.
4. The shortest recovery period (also called an expansion) was 24 months long, from April of 1958 to April of 1960.
5. The longest expansion in the post-war period was 120 months, from March 1991 to March 2001.
6. The average economic expansion during this period has been 63 months, or roughly five years, in length.
7. Our current expansion of just over 3 years is roughly two thirds of the way to that average length.
8. The best jobs growth we’ve seen in an economic recovery took place during the 1982-1990 period, when employment jumped by 24%.
9. The worst jobs growth in an economic recovery was recorded during the last one, 2001-2007, which was an anemic 6%.
10. The good news is that the average post-World War II recession has spanned just 11 months in length, hence we are in recession less than 20% of the amount of time than we are in recovery or expansion.
So, having this knowledge as the backdrop, feel free to ponder the question of how much longer this recovery should/might last.
women’s lifestyle in 1800s
[…]Here is a great Weblog You might Locate Interesting that we Encourage You[…]
beat store
[…]one of our guests recently encouraged the following website[…]
Cheap Milwaukee Brewers Jerseys
[…]just beneath, are quite a few entirely not associated web sites to ours, even so, they’re surely worth going over[…]
ladies fashion kilts
[…]we prefer to honor quite a few other web web-sites around the internet, even if they arent linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages really worth checking out[…]
سرور مجازی
[…]always a massive fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but really don’t get lots of link enjoy from[…]
dresses 8-10
[…]we came across a cool website that you may enjoy. Take a look when you want[…]
maxi dresses denim
[…]always a significant fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but really don’t get a great deal of link love from[…]
fashion plates toy tomy
[…]Every the moment inside a while we pick blogs that we read. Listed beneath would be the most up-to-date web sites that we opt for […]
home improvement contractors
[…]although web-sites we backlink to below are considerably not associated to ours, we really feel they are basically really worth a go via, so have a look[…]
buy kona
[…]below you will find the link to some web-sites that we consider you need to visit[…]
buy kona
[…]although web-sites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we feel they may be essentially really worth a go as a result of, so possess a look[…]
Business
[…]we came across a cool internet site which you may well delight in. Take a look should you want[…]
home 64 vs pro 64
[…]Every when inside a whilst we opt for blogs that we study. Listed below are the latest web pages that we opt for […]
Light expertise SanLiBang
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated information, nevertheless definitely really worth taking a look, whoa did 1 find out about Mid East has got much more problerms too […]
home improvements services
[…]Here are a few of the internet sites we recommend for our visitors[…]