Estimize is Better at Covering Apple than Wall Street (don't be shocked)

My friend Leigh Drogen and his new site Estimize have been collecting estimates for Apple ($AAPL) earnings for 8 quarters now.  Here are some of their findings from the data:

  • The average difference between the Estimize EPS consensus and what Apple reports is 8.75% while the average distance between Wall Street and what Apple reports is 17.13%. The averages for Revenue are 4.74% and 8.80% respectively. This boils down to Estimize being far more accurate than Wall Street.
  • Here’s where it gets interesting. The average distance between Apple’s guidance and the Estimize consensus for EPS and Revenue are 32.03% and 15.48% respectively.
  • The average three day move in Apple’s stock after the report over the last 7 quarters has been 4.92% on an absolute basis.
  • For FQ4 2011, the distance between the Estimize consensus and Apple’s guidance was a whopping 43.45% for EPS and 20.98% on Revenue. Apple missed those expectations and was down almost 7% three days later.
  • For FQ1 2012, the tables flipped and the difference was only 12.37% for EPS and 6.48% for Revenue. Apple crushed it and was up 6.4% three days later.

There’s a great chart on these relationships here.


The Amazing Relationship Between the Estimize Consensus and Apple’s Guidance (Surfview Capital)






This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. cheap rockstar wigs commented on Sep 24

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 69016 additional Information on that Topic: […]

  2. bitcoin evolution review commented on Sep 29

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: […]

  3. bitcoin blazing trader commented on Sep 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on on that Topic: […]

  4. Top Agency Hong Kong commented on Oct 10

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 96597 additional Information to that Topic: […]

  5. what is grc commented on Oct 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More here to that Topic: […]

  6. dumps shop cc commented on Nov 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 91107 more Information to that Topic: […]

  7. tangerine online login commented on Nov 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]

  8. td easyweb banking commented on Dec 06

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you can find 9022 additional Information to that Topic: […]

  9. nằm mơ thấy ngựa đánh số gì commented on Dec 21

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: […]

  10. 토토 commented on Dec 25

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: […]

  11. fake breguet commented on Dec 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]

  12. เงินด่วนอุบล commented on Jan 03

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: […]

  13. rbc bank account commented on Jan 03

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on to that Topic: […]

  14. Digital Transformation commented on Jan 16

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here to that Topic: […]

  15. cibc banking commented on Jan 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here to that Topic: […]