My friend Leigh Drogen and his new site Estimize have been collecting estimates for Apple ($AAPL) earnings for 8 quarters now. Here are some of their findings from the data:
- The average difference between the Estimize EPS consensus and what Apple reports is 8.75% while the average distance between Wall Street and what Apple reports is 17.13%. The averages for Revenue are 4.74% and 8.80% respectively. This boils down to Estimize being far more accurate than Wall Street.
- Here’s where it gets interesting. The average distance between Apple’s guidance and the Estimize consensus for EPS and Revenue are 32.03% and 15.48% respectively.
- The average three day move in Apple’s stock after the report over the last 7 quarters has been 4.92% on an absolute basis.
- For FQ4 2011, the distance between the Estimize consensus and Apple’s guidance was a whopping 43.45% for EPS and 20.98% on Revenue. Apple missed those expectations and was down almost 7% three days later.
- For FQ1 2012, the tables flipped and the difference was only 12.37% for EPS and 6.48% for Revenue. Apple crushed it and was up 6.4% three days later.
There’s a great chart on these relationships here.