if I were to write one. But seriously, give me a break. I talk to guys who’ve been watching the Fed and digesting every single statement for decades – DECADES – and they don’t have a clue. For me or any other wannabe pundit to come out and say something like “71% chance the Fed moves” is totally rate-tarded, it’s a guess, a penny tossed in a wishing well.
The FOMC is the Kremlin. No one has any special insight and the track record of economists and pseudo-economists in predicting its policy moves is a Marx Brothers-worthy farce.
This and other insights will all appear in my forthcoming book for Wiley & Sons, entitled “The Little Book of Shutting the Fuck Up.”
My friend Dynamic Hedge agrees with me, this morning he said “Interior decorating is rock hard science compared to economics practiced by amateurs.”
But let’s be constructive – for more color on the context in which this meeting is being held, I recommend Gavin Davies at the FT:
Have fun today.