Tops, Bottoms & Middles

Tops are a process, Bottoms are an event and Middles are a motherfucker.

Because when you’re not at a top or at a bottom, but somewhere in the middle, you spend the bulk of your time worrying about which one of those two you’re closer to.

Market-timers don’t live long, its a horrible existence.  My friend JC likes to say picking tops and bottoms is the most expensive job on Wall Street.

A lot of the media’s time and attention is spent discussing whether or not something is bottoming (housing, stocks, consumer confidence, ratings, etc) or topping (tech stocks, valuations, bond prices, sentiment).  It’s great conversation but not helpful.

Because most of the time things are not bottoming or topping.  They are middle-ing.  They are churning or they are trending.  Most of the time, there is no inflection point at hand – these are rare occurrences.  So to focus on them to such a great degree is probably a distraction and definitely a waste of time.  And energy and emotion.

Think about the middle.



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  1. The Middles - All Star Charts - commented on Jan 21

    […] Markets are rarely ever putting in a top or a bottom. Most of the time they’re just somewhere in the middle. For years I’ve told my friend Josh that his best blog post ever was one from 2012 which he titled, “Tops, Bottoms and Middles”. […]

  2. These Are The Cards We've Been Dealt - All Star Charts - commented on Mar 30

    […] Not all markets need to be trending at all times. It doesn’t have to be an uptrend, and it doesn’t have to be a downtrend. We can be somewhere in the middle. I always like to reference what I think is my friend Josh’s greatest blog post of all time: Tops, Bottoms & Middles […]