Secular Bulls and Bears in 15 Year Increments

The Floyd Norris of New York Times has a great chart (below) and a good accompanying article up today about 15 year “good” and “bad” periods for the market, a pattern that has  been playing out over decades…

The total return, after inflation, of stocks over 15-year periods seems to be repeating the pattern it mapped out decades ago. The compound annual total real return of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index peaked at more than 15 percent in 1999, and has since fallen to just 3 percent. That peak was similar to the earlier peak, reached in 1964. After that 1964 peak, the stock market lost momentum and then entered a bear market. By 1979, the market had failed to keep up with inflation over the previous 15 years.

Read the companion article here:

A Historical Cycle Bodes Ill for the Markets (NYT)