The big question on traders’ minds is whether or not the statement will include the “downside risk” sentence that we all know is code for “Euro contagion”. Probably not going away unfortunately. The Fed’s been burned each time it attempted to get optimistic – the data just couldn’t stay on course, especially this fall. That said, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index just printed an 85 – the highest reading in 9 months. There has been real improvement in unemployment and manufacturing, perhaps some of these reasons for optimism will make it into the remarks.
We shall see.