Market players hear about central bank activity and immediately draw a mental line to inflation. They next make the almost-automatic leap to commodities.
But David Kotok, in his latest investor letter from Cumberland Advisors, has a thing or two to say on the subject of precious metals and other commodities in the current environment…
The United States is not in recession. It is in a very slow-growth environment. Uncertainties are very high and uncertainty premiums are large, but decisions about US portfolios are based upon whether you are betting on recession, or slow growth.
If it is slow growth, stocks are inexpensive and markets are headed higher. That is the position of Cumberland Advisors. If a double-dip recession is coming, then stocks are headed lower and you should not own them.
The course of action to take in global portfolios is a different matter. In our global multi-asset class, we have taken our precious metal positions to 6% of the total deployment. That is very, very high and it is a considerable overweight for us. Precious metals are a tiny weight in global asset allocation under normal circumstances. We use several ETFs to reach that position, and they reflect an amalgamation of precious metal exposure.
We have this precious metal weight very high because, we are able to see a monetary policy transmission effect that reaches into precious metals. That supports our view that precious metals are likely to be priced higher in US dollar terms in the future. There is a considerable time lag between central bank actions and monetary effects and resultant higher precious metal prices; we measure that somewhere between nine and eighteen months.
We do not find the same relationship with commodities. Commodities are driven by other extensive factors in addition to liquidity flows from the creation of credit. Central bank balance sheet expansion has a weak link to commodities in this current environment, where central banks are attempting to provide as much liquidity as possible to avoid systemic meltdown.
David’s letter can be found in its entirety at The Big Picture as always…