Wallace Shawn’s villainous character in 1987’s The Princess Bride thinks he has the whole kidnap-the-princess thing down to a science – and this certainty is what leads to his repeated exclamations of “Inconceivable!” as he is thwarted at nearly every turn.
After a multitude of inconceivables, his henchman feels compelled to mention to him, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”
And in like fashion, it appears as though investors and market commentators may want to get used to the fact that certain events that were once inconceivable! could now be on the menu this fall.
These include:
Greek Default – “The shock resignation of European Central Bank chief economist Juergen Stark last Friday, and weekend comments by German politicians suggesting Athens may have to default and be “suspended” from the euro zone, drove the euro to a 10-year low against the yen and a 7-month low against the dollar.” – Reuters
Greece or another peripheral country leaving the European Monetary Union – “Sovereign default, corporate default, collapse of the banking system and international trade are just some of the problems a seceding peripheral euro-zone country would have to face, said UBS. That could entail an initial cost of around 9,500-11,500 euros per person in that country followed by an annual cost of 3,000-4,000 euros per person.” – Real Time Economics
Germany throwing its hands up and walking – “Even if a stronger country like Germany were to leave, UBS still thinks it is going to set every German back by about 6,000-8,000 euros in the first year and then around 3,500-4,500 euros per person in every year thereafter. A stronger euro-zone country wouldn’t face sovereign default but it is still vulnerable to corporate default, recapitalization of the banking system and a collapse of international trade.” – from Real Time Economics
A recession for corporate profits in the US – “[MKM Partners’ Michael Darda] reckons that consensus estimates for Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings could prove too generous by 25% to 30%. He points out in support of that conjecture that earnings expectations in the past have been, on average, 27% too high at business-cycle peaks, which obviously is where he thinks we are now. What this means…is that with year-ahead estimates for the S&P 500 at $108, the actual number may be…closer to $75 to $80. That gets confirmation of a sort, he feels, from the junk-bond market, where spreads have surged more than 400 basis points, from a low of 150 basis points earlier this year. That kind of big jump, he relates, usually goes hand in hand with something like a 30% fall in earnings estimates in the quarters that follow.” – Barron’s
2012 earnings estimate cuts for US equities – “The Street’s earnings forecast for the S&P 500-stock index is about $95 for 2011, and about $112 for 2012. If the bears are right, earnings estimates might too high by as much as 30 to 40 percent, and a recession-driven earnings contraction means lower equity prices.” – Washington Post
In 2011, the things that were inconceivable as recently as the end of 2010 are now becoming likely by year’s end.
Get used to it.
apps download for windows 10
[…]check beneath, are some completely unrelated internet websites to ours, nonetheless, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
app download for windows
[…]the time to read or check out the subject material or web pages we’ve linked to below the[…]
how to coupon
[…]Here is an excellent Blog You may Uncover Fascinating that we Encourage You[…]
Adult SEO
[…]check beneath, are some totally unrelated web sites to ours, having said that, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
free sex porn
[…]the time to read or go to the material or web sites we have linked to below the[…]
Fendi
[…]here are some hyperlinks to web-sites that we link to mainly because we consider they are worth visiting[…]
Bvlgari
[…]that will be the end of this report. Right here youll discover some web-sites that we consider youll enjoy, just click the hyperlinks over[…]
コンタクトレンズ 通販
[…]please visit the web-sites we adhere to, such as this one, as it represents our picks in the web[…]
Condo for Rent Villeray
[…]Here is an excellent Blog You may Uncover Intriguing that we Encourage You[…]
100 pound heavy bag
[…]Here are several of the web sites we suggest for our visitors[…]
BESTEK 2000 Watt Power Inverter
[…]please visit the internet sites we adhere to, like this one particular, because it represents our picks from the web[…]
vpn ایفون
Hey there! I recently noticed your site and I undoubtedly take pleasure in it. I adore to communicate about omega xl at times. Great to be about, thanks a great deal!
how to make a dildo at home
[…]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]
1000W Power Inverter
[…]always a significant fan of linking to bloggers that I like but really don’t get a whole lot of link really like from[…]
Car Power Inverter 400W
[…]The information talked about within the write-up are some of the most effective readily available […]