David Rosenberg is one of the smartest economic talking heads out there today. While I’ve at times disagreed with his intractable bearishness vociferously (say, for the last two years), I now find myself in almost total agreement with his talking points from this morning on CNBC.
Rosie told Squawk Box the following:
* We are already in recession, and while this one may last awhile, there is no evidence to support claims that this recession will be as catastrophic as the one that began in 2007 (I’ve been saying this for a month now).
* Both gold and Treasurys have more room to run, but tactically-speaking, buyers should hold off at today’s prices as both are overdue for a short-term pullback.
* There’s no reason to be completely out of equities, but one should be underweight the amount of equities they’d own in a cyclical bull market, which this assuredly is not (this mirrors exactly what we’ve done with the stock weightings in the portfolios we’re managing).
* The equities you do own ought to be defensive in nature and not cyclical, they should have good earnings visibility and solid dividends (again, he may as well have been talking my book precisely).
* The best type of stimulus the government could do would be something tied to energy. Natural gas infrastructure build-out for example would put legions of Americans to work and could eventually lead to much lower energy prices for consumers leading to a higher amount of disposable income (long time readers are aware of my nat gas vehicle obsession).
If and when things get better, Rosenberg will likely not be the guy who tells you so, but in this moment he is the voice of reason and realism you want to pay attention to. When the video pops up, I’ll post it in the Mixtape.