One of the things its helpful to keep in mind is that market tops are a process and market bottoms are an event. This means that tops can take a long time to confirm that they are tops and there can be many “false positives” along the way to a true top.
That said, calling tops and bottoms is the most expensive job on Wall Street (as my friend JC Parets likes to remind me) so I try not to engage in that sort of stuff. While I’ve been lightening up stock exposure, very publicly, I’m hesitant to say that new highs would be unattainable this year…it’s only August and a lot can happen.
Mark Gongloff gave me (and Barry) a nice shoutout at WSJ MarketBeat today in his post on the topping possibility…
This may well be one of those posts/articles that rings the bell at a near-term market bottom. But it’s worth asking, in light of recent developments: Has the market already put in a top?
First, there’s the S&P 500 chart, which looks awful right now. The index has drilled right through its 200-day moving average, which in the recent past has proven a resistance point. No longer.