Vitaliy's Chinese Black Swan Thesis

There are only a handful of newsletters I look forward to each month and Vitaliy Katsenelson‘s ContrarianEdge is one of them.

This week he’s talking about how a Chinese real estate crash is a very real possibility:

I often hear the argument that China will not have a real estate crisis of US proportions because home and condo owners have to put 30-40% down when they buy.  So where do people get the money to buy a house that costs, on average, 8 times their annual income (a figure several times higher than in the US)?  Some of it comes from savings, and some comes from borrowing from relatives.

China just hiked rates overnight for the third time this year and the fifth time for this cycle.  Should prices come down hard, an entire ecosystem of local government lending and borrowing (est at $2.2 trillion) could find itself facing some serious repayment problems.

For a succinct and well thought-out take on the bear case for China, I recommend heading over for the rest.

Source:

The Chinese Black Swan (ContrarianEdge)

 

 

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. https://www.avalon78.com/ commented on Sep 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  2. bitcoin evolution reviews 2020 commented on Sep 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  3. immediate edge review commented on Sep 29

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 67082 additional Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  4. Bitcoin Trading Software commented on Sep 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  5. DevOps commented on Nov 02

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  6. write my essay help commented on Nov 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  7. tangerine savings online commented on Nov 11

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  8. What is Digital Transformation commented on Nov 13

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  9. Vad kostar det att skrota bilen commented on Dec 07

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  10. td canada trust online commented on Dec 16

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you can find 96049 more Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  11. Skrotningspremie commented on Jan 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]

  12. sanitizing machine commented on Feb 02

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/07/06/vitaliys-chinese-black-swan-thesis/ […]