I spend 2/3rd’s of my time on this site lauding the work of others but today I’m tooting my own horn.
The Autumn Rally
In Legends of the Fall, a post I wrote in late August from a hospital bed with an NG tube up my nose and down my throat, I shredded the nonsense about how “cruel” September would be. The point I made was that the 7000 articles and blog posts warning us about owning stocks in September (and October) were to be categorically disregarded.
September 2010 ended up being the second best September for stocks since 1939, a 9% monthly gain for the S&P. October has been pretty phenomenal as well so far, the Dow is back above 11,000 and Bob Prechter stopped by the office to shine my Cole Haan loafers this past Wednesday (jk).
Rallies Musn’t Begin With Volume
In Price Before Volume, Don’t Get it Twisted, I explained that volume at the beginning of a market breakout or rally was meaningless, it was more important to get the gain – the volume would follow only after a 5 to 7% move. I was absolutely right. The S&P broke up above the 1130 -1140 resistance which held it in check for 6 months and it did so on very little volume. It was only after the initial 5% jump that the sentiment indicators started to buzz and some real money was peeled off the sidelines.
The icing on the cake is that this week the long bond rolled over, the proximate cause was Thursday’s weak auction, but this was a long time coming regardless. Guess where that bond market money is already heading?
Frontier Markets/Agriculture Plays
Lastly but surely not leastly, I nailed the massive, historic move in agricultural commodities and the breakout for the Frontier Markets. Sugar, corn, wheat – you name it, the illest moves in the entire market, way hotter than gold. Frontier markets have broken out en masse, crushing the BRIC stocks in percentage terms and finally coming into their own in the financial media. Frontier plays and ag plays are my two biggest overweights as I spit in the general direction of the Fraudclosure/Frank-Dodd Bill/Taxation controversies that so many are hung up on.
The posts in which I talked about these plays are too numerous to mention, so use the search box at the top or browse my archives at right.
You guys know I’m not here to hand out investment advice or recommendations like fliers in a subway station – free tips are worth exactly what you pay for them. But as far as commentary goes, I feel really connected with this tape. Right now, it’s my tape. The pros in my audience know exactly what I mean.
Keep reading and stay tuned – I never take days off, I never get lazy and I never go on auto-pilot. I am constantly striving to make this site fresh, useful and fun for my readers, whom I appreciate more than they can imagine.