Dow 38,000 – More Plumage for the Peacocking Bulls

Yesterday I let you guys in on a new phenomenon borne of the incredible September rally – the pageantry of the newly emboldened bulls (see it here:  T Shirt Time for the Bulls).

Fresh evidence of what I explained arrived later in the day as Jeffery Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame laid out the case for Dow 38,820 by 2025.  It’s quite theoretical but still exemplary of the phenomenon I mentioned and an interesting read…

From StreetInsider:

The Dow Jones industrial average will hit 38,820 according to Jeffery Hirsch, editor in chief of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” the catch is investors will have to wait until 2025 when the markets will be eight years into a super boom.

Hirsch believes that the majority of the 259 percent surge will not come until 2017.

“All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity.”

That 2017 number keeps popping up as the start of the new bull cycle (16 years after the last cyclical peak in 2000 is how they arrive at it, same as the 16 years of bearishness leading into 1982 FYI).

So 9.4% a year would be needed to hit 38,000 by 2025 – not so outrageous when you consider that up until 1999, that’s pretty much what the market used to do.

Dreamy, creamy stuff, Mr. Hirsch.  Hope you’re right, I’ll actually be able to retire one day.


Hirsch Sees ‘Super Boom’ with Dow Hitting 38,820 (StreetInsider)

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