Dubai World & Bear Stearns: Coal Mine Canaries?

Posted by

Click Image to Embiggen!

http://thereformedbroker.com

The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.

While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).

Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates.  At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.

Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai.  Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.

We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.

Full Disclosure:  Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Tags: , , , , , ,

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Palm Beach Real Estate commented on Mar 21

    Palm Beach Real Estate

    […]The details talked about in the article are several of the most effective offered […]

  2. online chat rooms commented on Mar 21

    online chat rooms

    […]Sites of interest we’ve a link to[…]

  3. Morocco like, follow and share commented on Mar 22

    Morocco like, follow and share

    You’ll find everything that you need. Links relating to: morocco, travel, real estate, news, business, shopping, arabic music, cuisine, traditional moroccan wedding, travel directory at le-maroc.info

  4. One way link building commented on Mar 22

    One way link building

    […]the time to study or check out the content material or web-sites we have linked to below the[…]

  5. Jewelers store commented on Mar 22

    Jewelers store

    […]very few sites that take place to be comprehensive below, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well worth checking out[…]

  6. key words Costa Rica dental commented on Mar 22

    key words Costa Rica dental

    […]although web-sites we backlink to beneath are considerably not associated to ours, we really feel they may be essentially worth a go via, so possess a look[…]

  8. cash commented on Mar 23

    cash

    […]The details talked about in the article are several of the ideal accessible […]

  9. cursos gratis commented on Mar 24

    cursos gratis

    […]that would be the end of this report. Right here you’ll uncover some sites that we feel you’ll value, just click the links over[…]

  10. non echical hacking commented on Mar 24

    non echical hacking

    […]below you will locate the link to some web pages that we think you ought to visit[…]

  11. link alternatif garudaqq commented on Mar 24

    link alternatif garudaqq

    […]below you’ll uncover the link to some sites that we assume you must visit[…]

  12. 3d commented on Mar 24

    3d

    […]although websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not related to ours, we feel they’re actually worth a go through, so possess a look[…]

  13. clean water commented on Mar 24

    clean water

    […]always a large fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but really don’t get a good deal of link appreciate from[…]

  14. Andrew Wright Maine lawyer commented on Mar 24

    Andrew Wright Maine lawyer

    […]usually posts some pretty fascinating stuff like this. If you are new to this site[…]

HowIInvestMyMoney