Forecasters See Recovery… Jobless Recovery

GDP Forecast

This came out from the Philly Fed on Friday night…

The Third Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters got a smaller response than normal (only 34 economists participated) but the results are interesting nonetheless.

By no means do I endorse the reliability of what this group has to say.  On the panel, you have some well-respected forecasters and then you have some industry shills whose sole purpose in putting estimates out is to spin the data.  That said, I still try to maintain some understanding of what the groupthink viewpoint is from time to time.

In the survey, it seems that growth rate expectations for GDP were actually raised looking out over the next 4 years (2.4% vs .4%), but the unemployment rate is expected to settle down at a higher level than previously expected .  This would feed into the idea of the jobless recovery.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia:

Philadelphia, Pa. – The 34 participants in the third-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today, have made upward revisions to their expectations for rate of growth in GDP over the next four years. They project growth this quarter at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, up from 0.4 percent in the last survey.

Their expectations for unemployment this year have inched up from an average of 9.1 to 9.2. Unemployment is seen rising to 9.6 percent next year. The forecasters see unemployment falling in 2011 and 2012 — but to levels higher than they predicted previously. Unemployment will average 8.9 percent in 2011, up from 8.7 percent in the last survey, and 8.0 percent in 2012, up from 7.7 percent. For more details, listen to an interview with our analyst.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

I think the takeaway for me is that I need to look at other examples of jobless recoveries, situations where the unemployment rate lagged even more than usual.

According to those surveyed, we could be looking at a 2012 with 3.2% GDP growth and an 8% unemployment rate!  These forecasts will evolve and adjust but still… strange stuff.

If this type of scenario is a distinct possibility, it would be nice to be prepared for it.  I’ll let you know what I come up with.


Third Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters (PhillyFed)

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. commented on Sep 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here on that Topic: […]

  2. Immediate Edge Review 2020 commented on Sep 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here to that Topic: […]

  3. 안전한 토토사이트 commented on Oct 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: […]

  4. cbd oil reviews commented on Nov 13

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  5. replica designer watches for men commented on Nov 25

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  6. scotiabank online banking sign in commented on Dec 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here on that Topic: […]

  7. 먹튀사이트 commented on Dec 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: […]

  8. sexy doll commented on Dec 31

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 99981 more Info on that Topic: […]

  9. DevOps Solutions commented on Jan 12

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you can find 54118 more Info to that Topic: […]

  10. tangerine bank signin commented on Jan 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here on that Topic: […]

  11. quality engineering commented on Jan 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 79518 more Information to that Topic: […]

  12. rolex replica commented on Jan 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 13840 additional Info on that Topic: […]