Hard to tell

Ben’s “predictions” for 2018 are pretty damn good.

I liked the one below because I’ve seen so many examples of it in my time.

My colleague Kris and I were on the train home last night and we high-fived each other as Ethereum was breaking above $1100 per coin. Neither one of us can tell you the first thing about it, so we were cackling like escaped mental patients in the rain.

A scaled-down version of this takes place in the traditional markets every year. Here’s Ben with one his calls for this year:

You won’t be able to distinguish between luck and skill in anyone’s investment results. People will be right for the wrong reasons and wrong for the right reasons but markets don’t care about these things over shorter time frames. Over any given year a great process can produce subpar results while a terrible (or no) process can produce phenomenal results. Bad decisions get rewarded all the time but luck doesn’t last forever in the markets. Eventually a good decision-making process will win out but over a one-year time frame anything can happen.

The stuff that we get lucky with cannot be counted on to continue. But in the near-term, if we’re not careful, we can let these lucky breaks go to our heads, and thus have them be transformed into confidence in our own abilities. It’s hard to tell who deserved to make or lose money from the outside looking in. But from the inside, we’re more likely than not to harbor no such confusion. I nailed it.

It’s a mirage.

Source:

10 Things Investors Can Expect in 2018 (A Wealth Of Common Sense)

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Hard to tell – Financial Solutions commented on Jan 09

    […] Ben’s “predictions” for 2018 are pretty damn good. I liked the one below because I’ve seen so many examples of it in my time. My colleague Kris and I were on the train home last night and we high-fived each other as Ethereum was breaking above $1100 per coin. Neither one of us can tell you the first thing about it, so we were cackling like escaped mental patients in the rain. A scaled-down version … Source: http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]

  2. thenaturalpenguin commented on Sep 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]

  3. older dating commented on Oct 14

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]

  4. liva casino malaysia commented on Nov 20

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]

  5. replica watches commented on Dec 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]

  6. DevOps solutions commented on Jan 12

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/09/hard-to-tell/ […]