If there is to be an imminent recession, then jobs are an even more lagging indicator than ever.
Because this morning’s non-farm payroll report showed a continuation of two important trends: wages are rising and participation in the labor force is growing as workers come off the sidelines.
4.9% headline unemployment combined with rising average hourly earnings (2.5% growth this month) will do that. A tighter employment situation should lead to greater participation and higher pay. The mechanism is functioning.
As for market reaction, who the f*** knows. I’ve lost track of whether good news was bad or good at this point.
IT’S TERRIBLE OR POSSIBLY GREAT FOR STOCKS! BUY AND SELL! https://t.co/SiCY4fpGC1
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) February 5, 2016
Anyone who tells you they know how the dollar, the 10-year yield or the S&P 500 are going to zig or zag off a jobs report these days is just making it up.