July 2013

A quick note on portfolio construction and gold (cc: Professor Mankiw)

Greg Mankiw, a professor of economics at Harvard whose insights and writing I appreciate a great deal, attempted to answer the question of whether “a little gold” makes sense in a portfolio. By concluding “Sure, keep a little…” he makes a common error. In my opinion, there is only one answer to the question of…

Obama vs Austerity

The debt ceiling debate resumes headed into this November for some unknown reason that makes sense to very few educated people. In the meantime, Obama’s going to make another push for infrastructure spending, R&D spending and the other things he campaigned based on – the stuff congress won’t let him enact in real life. He…

David Einhorn: The New Game is ‘Beat and Lower’

This is an ongoing earnings season phenomenon that many have picked up on but David Einhorn expresses it best in his quarterly letter to shareholders (via ValueWalk): During the first few years of the market recovery, the formula for higher stock prices was “beat estimates and raise guidance.” Not anymore. Now it’s enough to beat…

Howard Marks on the Company You Keep

We like to say “You are who your friends are” in our house, as my wife has talked me out of a lot of destructive or one-sided relationships over the years. These days, I make a conscious effort to spend whatever free time I have with winners and good people, of which thankfully there are…

This Week on TRB

Here were the most read posts on TRB this week, in case you missed them: Anecdotally… “If you are going to be wrong, it pays to be spectacularly wrong.” The hardest thing to do. Rotation Now Undeniable Where Have All the Cowboys Gone?    

QOTD: Citigroup’s ‘Death of Emerging Markets’ Call

David Lubin, head of emerging market economics at Citigroup: “The EM story is based on rapid growth, led by exports, which delivers large current account surpluses, which leads to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the expansion of domestic credit…Every single element of that story is no longer true.” is the Emerging Markets as an…