Bull Market Returns Almost Entirely Dependent on Duration

Every once in awhile a comet shoots across my screen and in an instant I become aware that I’m seeing something special.

In this case, it’s a research report from Lighthouse Investment Management’s Alexander Gloy that reaches an conclusion so brilliant in its obviousness that everyone ought to be aware of it.

I want you to digest this quick, 8-page report (embedded below) on how the returns of the last half-century’s worth of bull markets are almost entirely based on the amount of time they’ve gone on for. The good news is that, if history holds, we are not quite yet at the median of this move duration-wise (this would occur in October of 2013) and not hardly close to the average bull market ( which doesn’t occur until April 2014).

Take a minute for this, it’s a fascinating insight…


Amazingly, 89% of bull market performance can be explained by time (Lighthouse)

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