I’m not a technical analyst by training although I’ve been forced to both respect and understand technicals over the last 15 years the hard way. The shop I work at has integrated a technical discipline into everything we do on the analytics side, which frankly has been a big help to me in terms of risk management and understanding the supply/demand picture from 50,000 feet up.
When looking at gold ($GLD), you can be an expert in the fairy tale aspect of it and cite episodes from Ancient Sumeria as proof of its value – or you can grow up and accept the fact that it is literally the ultimate Greater Fool trade, for better or for worse. Since there are no earnings produced from gold we really only have supply and demand to go by, and that is why the technicals are really all that matter with this particular “asset class.”
I’m speaking to an audience of 6000 gold bugs in Vancouver next Monday, if I should disappear as a result of this post, please give my blog to Tadas Viskanta and my Twitter handle to Joe Weisenthal, as per my living will.
Anyway, 150 seems like a pretty important level for $GLD (1500 for an ounce of gold) and it seems to be flirting with breaking under as we speak. My rudimentary charting skills on display below (click to embiggen!):
Also, don’t miss Peter Brandt’s post on the topic this morning, he is seeing the potential for a “waterfall event”.