GDP

S&P: The Consumer is Coming Back, But Don't Expect Fireworks

The chart above demonstrates how consumer spending typically lags GDP.  One of the most gruesome features of our recent downturn has been the sheer depth of the unemployment crisis and how that has led to higher savings rates, leading to the need for businesses to lay off even more employees. Standard & Poors economists David…

Q3 GDP and Jobless Claims First Look

Two big numbers out this morning, we’ll put up the initial take on both: GDP (from Bloomberg) The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, propelled by stimulus-driven gains in consumer spending and home building.  The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from…

Big Week For Econ Data, All Eyes On Q3 GDP

Virtually everyone I speak with on The Street is looking toward Thursday morning’s GDP report for the 3rd quarter of 2009.  This is supposedly THE quarter, the one that proves we are, in fact, growing again. When explaining to clients what the GDP report actually is, I use the following quick-and-dirty equation: Consumption + Investment…

Forecasters See Recovery… Jobless Recovery

This came out from the Philly Fed on Friday night… The Third Quarter 2009 Survey of Professional Forecasters got a smaller response than normal (only 34 economists participated) but the results are interesting nonetheless. By no means do I endorse the reliability of what this group has to say.  On the panel, you have some…

Measuring GDP Growth from Space

The image above is from a series of shots taken by satellite over the course of 11 years.  It will be used by scientists to get a better idea of how economies in developing countries are growing.  In many places, the data reported locally just isn’t reliable or robust enough to truly capture the rate…

Goldman Pegs China's GDP at Lucky Number 8

From FT: Goldman Sachs has hiked its forecasts for Chinese GDP and reckons the magical growth figure of 8 per cent could be reached this year.  The bank says better than expected results from November’s huge fiscal stimulus package and aggressive policy easing are behind its upgrade. Maybe Goldman understands this or maybe not, but…