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The New New New Normal – US wages rising

This morning the markets are shocked thanks to a year-over-year gain in US salaries and wages of 2.6%. The ten-year Treasury yield is now up almost 10% over the last four days. I was at a BlackRock iShares conference last week where Morgan Stanley’s economist Ellen Zentner predicted almost this exact number and reaction: Ellen…

The Street loses faith in Twitter

Twitter’s the ultimate “belief” story – you either think it will be one of the most import and influential media platforms on earth or you don’t. If you are a believer, then you accept the lumpiness inherent in a fledgling ad model that hasn’t yet been proven and the nonstop impossible comparisons to the honor…

The Death (and rebirth?) of the Morningstar Style Box

We don’t use Morningstar style boxes when building client portfolios. We spend a lot more time on true financial planning, quantitative risk and emotional assessment and other diagnostic or intangible measures in order to help the households we work for to achieve long-term financial success. The industry is moving in this direction and Morningstar knows…

Charlatans exist because people crave certainty

I have a whole chapter in my book, Clash of the Financial Pundits, that explains why we’re so easily lulled into stupidity by economic or market commentators. It boils down to the fact that the world is an uncertain place, so we inherently gravitate toward those who provide us with certainty. It’s how organized religions…

Chart o’ the Day: Are Commodities Bottoming?

Given the amazing strength in the US dollar over the last six months, the lack of momentum in US (or Chinese) economic data and the effects of the oil crash still lingering, one thing virtually no one is predicting is any kind of comeback for the commodities market. Andrew Thrasher, who studies price rather than…