Peter Boockvar shares an interesting insight from this weekend’s Barron’s Big Money Poll:
If you haven’t seen it yet, the past weekend’s Barron’s Magazine published its Big Money Poll of US money managers. Of those polled, 45% were bullish, 50% were neutral and just 5% were bearish…
One last data point that I found interesting in the poll was the question “Will the stock market rise or fall in the first 6 months after the Fed first raises rates?” Only 25% thought it would fall and a large 55% said it would rally. The balance of 20% thought the rate hike would have ‘no effect on stocks.’ Thus an amazing 75% of money managers aren’t bothered at all about a rate hike. Historically speaking the market does not get hurt in the early parts of a rate hike cycle so there is plenty of precedence for this thought but we’re not in your normal cycle so those surveyed are just guessing, as we all are to an extent.
Managing Director, Chief Market Analyst
The Lindsey Group LLC