The academic literature on who wins the White House in a given election is pretty clear. People vote their wallets – when they feel heavier the incumbent’s party keeps power, when they feel lighter, it’s “time for change”. This isn’t a slam dunk every time, but it’s an over-generalization worth keeping in mind. I’ve seen…

Oil can get cut in half during both recession and expansion. It is very often its own story.

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Long-time reader Michael Johnston did a really nice thing by putting together some of the more poignant things I’ve written over the years and I’m really flattered and honored to hear that my ramblings are having a positive impact with some people. When I looked back at some of these – and the posts they’ve come…

Posting will be light today as I’m en route to take part in the 2015 Battle of the Quants conference at Carnegie Hall in New York City. I’m moderating a panel discussion about pretty fascinating topic – whether or not Wall Street and Silicon Valley will end up as rivals or partners as they infringe…

This week it’s the fact that the Dow Transports are setting multi-week lows while the Dow Industrials flirt with an all-time record breakout. Maybe this “non-confirmation” will matter. Hasn’t mattered about a hundred times before as this sort of divergence has resolved itself to the upside – crisis averted. But this time, maybe. Once upon…

Art

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As I mentioned a few weeks back, the three critical conditions to see a large number of actively managed stock mutual funds outperform are all present: a) cash is not a huge drag b) small/mid caps competitive with large caps c) international stocks holding their own Dipping into smaller stocks, foreign stocks that exist outside the…