Betting against a first half recession

You don’t need to try to guess what combination of stocks, bonds or futures would allow you successfully collect in the event of a recession anymore. You can make an event bet now without using the securities markets at all. I’ve been making some of my own on I’m not doing this with large dollar amounts but I am having a lot of fun forcing myself to think through the bets and the odds I’m getting. How strong or weak is my conviction?

As of this writing, the price of a “No” contract to the question of “Will a recession start by Q2 2022?” is about 84 cents. Which means you have to put up a lot to win a little, because the “No” bet is consensus. The long shot bet on “Yes” there will be a recession by the end of June only costs 15 cents, if you’re feeling frisky. You’d have to think the Fed is really going to screw things up – or imagine a nasty new variant of the virus – to want to put a lot of dollars behind that “Yes” bet.

By August, the bet will have expired but players should be able to cash out at any time along the way if they like the prevailing price being offered by other bettors in the market.

We got so excited about the potential of the Kalshi platform, we became shareholders too. Obviously I am not endorsing any specific bet anyone would want to make, but if you have an opinion on this one, here’s how you can sign up and put your own bets on:

Remember, nothing you read here should be considered as financial advice. Betting is not the same as investing. Bets are not securities. See my full terms and conditions for the whole disclaimer.



This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.