Michael Cembalest (JPMorgan) on Goldman’s vaccine call…
Last week, Goldman issued a report that was bullish on the prospect of vaccine approval in 2020: “We expect that the FDA will approve at least one vaccine this year and that large shares of the US and European populations will be vaccinated by the end of 2021Q2 and 2021Q3, respectively.” I don’t disagree from a completely birds-eye perspective…but based on what?
Goldman’s first exhibit cited a random group of unnamed superforecasters from the “Good Judgment” project, a group of people who make predictions about markets, sports, finance, politics etc. A Maryland pharmacist who emerged as a certified Good Judgment superforecaster explained her process as follows: “I do Google searches”. So I am going to ignore that part.
Sticking to my call that the FDA approves a vaccine before the election.
Charts of the Week
JPMorgan Asset Management – August 11th, 2020