I don’t endorse political candidates on this blog, and I’m not writing this with the intention of getting into a political debate. Before you react, I will state emphatically that my political opinions are trash and only yours are the correct ones.
Okay, with that out of the way, I will proceed with the point I want to make: Biden can win.
A month ago, I would have told you that I was 90% sure Donald Trump would win reelection without a problem, regardless of which Democratic candidate he faced. I don’t think my opinion is any better than most others out there, but I’m one of the only people on The Street that called Trump winning and realizing that it wouldn’t be an adverse market event. The majority of chief strategist notes you had read that year said Trump would trigger a correction but don’t worry because he can’t win.
Anyway, I think Joe Biden has a 50/50 shot. It’s not a scientific estimate. I don’t believe in any of that big data polling stuff anyway, it’s been shredded by reality anyway, because people don’t admit who they’re really going to vote for in an environment where social media mobs can instantly rob you of your career and ruin your life for not being woke enough.
What Biden’s people should be doing now is totally ignoring the leftward pull of Twitter progressivism and go full blast on the administration’s failure to keep COVID-19 under control.
These are facts, not partisan talking points, please try not to get upset, you can google all of this and verify:
The President de-funded some of our most important agencies that are meant to serve as the vanguard against infectious disease outbreaks, which Obama had set up during the Ebola scare in 2014. He terminated the person who ran the CDC’s response to these things because he was an Obama guy. Then he spent weeks talking about coronavirus as though it were a hoax. Then he acted as if blocking flights from China was a sufficient response. Then he said we’d be going from 10 cases to 5 cases to zero. It wasn’t until the stock market cratered that he got engaged, and even still his engagement has come across as petulant, half-hearted and selfish.
Trump had a chance to become a leader and stop screeching about “the Democrats” during this crisis. He didn’t take it. He made a different bet: He gambled that, like everything else, he could just bluster his way through this until another topic captivated the media’s attention. Unfortunately, it was a bad bet and now the country’s response is playing from behind the curve.
Biden could take advantage of this and the coming recession that now seems inevitable. Without the stock market and economy, the President is left with very little to run on. He can point to conservative judge appointments but independents don’t turn out for that. He could talk up his tax cut, but the headlines about bailouts and layoffs – from the hospitality industry to the oil fields – will surely drown it out.
Does the Biden team know what it’s doing? Can they coalesce around this message and take the President’s “GREAT ECONOMY” message away? Do they understand that it isn’t Trump’s fault that the Saudis and Russians are waging an oil price war but that it doesn’t matter whose fault something is, you capitalize regardless?
We shall see.