Peter Boockvar:

The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3…

The ISM said simply and obviously, “Comments from the panel reflect a continuing decrease in business confidence…Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019. Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near term growth.”

Bottom line, we have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the US and globally. What’s the strategy now? It better be more than the Chinese buying more soybeans because if it doesn’t include strong provisions on defending US IP than what was the point of this whole thing. Sorry to have to say this again but using tariffs as the tool to push back against China was a really dumb idea and history will not look kind upon the strategy just as it didn’t for Reed Smoot, Willis Hawley and Herbert Hoover.

We did it, gang!

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